1. Betting On Draws In Soccer Team
2. Betting On Draws In Soccer Team
3. Betting On Draws In Soccer Tournament
4. Betting On Draws In Soccer Player
5. Betting On Draws In Soccer World Cup

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Unlike higher scoring sports, such as rugby and American football, a soccer match has a significant chance of ending up as a draw. In this article, our soccer expert, Mark Taylor, shows how to predict which matches are more likely to end in a draw. Easier said than done? Read on to find out.

Roughly 24% of Premier League matches finished in a stalemate between the 2013/14 season and 2017/18 season. The most likely drawn score line was 1-1 (42% of all draws) followed by a goalless game (32%) and 2-2 (22%).

Therefore, draws comprise around a quarter of the outcomes in a Premier League game over a season and are also an important component of bets made in the handicap betting markets.

Roughly 24% of Premier League matches finished in a stalemate between 2013/14 and 2017/18. The most likely drawn score line was 1-1 (42% of all draws).

Intuitively, a draw is more likely between two sides of relatively equal ability, once the venue has been factored into the calculation.

A title contender hosting a struggling team will usually see the implied probability of a stalemate quoted at around 14%, whereas two mid-table teams in opposition will see the probabilities rise to around 30%.

This can be confirmed by applying the widely used Poisson Distribution to two nominally chosen equal sides.

Although a pure Poisson approach slightly underestimates the likelihood of a draw occurring in football, requiring an adjustment, the methodology is relatively straightforward.

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Calculating the chance of draws in the Premier League

Betting On Draws In Soccer Team

Consider a Premier League game where an average of 2.5 total goals is expected to be scored between two equally matched teams. In this scenario, each will score an average of 1.25 goals per game against each other.

The Poisson Distribution estimates that both teams have a 29% chance of failing to score, hence the unadjusted probability that the game ends in a 0-0 stalemate is found by multiplying these two probabilities together.

A 1-1 draw, in keeping with actual data from the Premier League, has a greater chance of occurring - nearly a 13% chance.

Once these figures are calculated for all possible drawn score lines, the probabilities for a 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and so on can be added together to get the overall chance of a draw for a typical Premier League game between two evenly matched sides.

In this example and without any correction to account for the small deviation of a Poisson from reality, a draw is predicted to have occurred around 27% of the time.

If the propensity of equally matched sides to play out a stalemate is easily appreciated, the likely scoring profiles of each side is often a neglected aspect of predicting draws.

Fewer predicted total goals in a match inevitably leads to an increased likelihood that each team will have lower individual scores.

The probability that a side will fail to score in a less goal laden environment, where the total expected goals in an evenly contested match is just 2.2, increases from 0.29 in the previous case to over 0.33.

This, in turn, increases the possibility of the game ending 0-0 from 0.08 to 0.11 and the cumulative unadjusted draw probability rises to over 0.29.

So selecting matches that are more likely to end in draws inevitably leads us towards teams of similar quality and who may have displayed a tendency to be good defensively, while lacking an attacking cutting edge.

Making soccer draw predictions

However, being able to identify such draw prospects is no guarantee that this heightened likelihood of a stalemate has not been appropriately factored into the price available.

It is also important to be aware that a team which exhibits extremes of performance, even over the course of a season, may become less extreme in the future.

A side may appear to be a draw specialist, partly by participating in low scoring matches, but the persistence of this trait may be overestimated and future draws may appear to have value where none actually exists.

The Premier League teams who were involved in the most draws over a season between 2006 and 2016 were typical mid-table teams, such as Stoke, West Brom and Aston Villa.

Betting On Draws In Soccer Team

The Premier League teams who were involved in the most draws over a season between 2006 and 2016 were typical mid-table teams, such as Stoke, West Brom and Aston Villa.
As a group, they averaged nearly 16 draws a season compared to the league average over that period of just below 10.

In the following season, however, the number of draws produced by these potential draw specialists fell from 16 to just over 10, very close to the league average.

A similar fate befell the largely successful sides, such as Manchester City and United, Tottenham and Chelsea who appeared to shun draws as a final game outcome.

From drawing an average of fewer than five games each per season in one campaign, they too regressed the following season and averaged eight draws between themselves, closer to the league average of 10 draws.

It is essential to understand the factors which may contribute towards drawn matches in football, although as ever regression towards a less extreme mean should always be considered and as the climax to the season approaches it is also worth factoring in occasions where a draw is mutually beneficial to both teams, particularly in Italy’s top flight league.

Which Soccer league has the most draws?

The big five European soccer leagues and the Champions League have a relatively similar percentage of matches ending in draws with none diverging too far from the 24.30% average across the leagues.

As a result bettors should be wary of placing too much emphasis on the league the match takes place in and instead focus on the individual teams in the matchup.

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Find out the meaning of soccer handicap betting, how it works and the different types of soccer handicap betting markets available at Pinnacle. Continue reading to become a handicap betting expert.

In soccer as is an all competitive sports there is normally a difference in perceived quality of the opposing teams; the size of that difference varies depending on a complex range of influences ranging from historical dominance and financial backing to situational factors such as home field advantage or player injuries/availability. Soccer betting interprets these factors and represent them as chances of success for each side in the form of odds.

Handicap betting explained

Where the perceived difference in abilities is significant the betting odds on the favourite will be so small that it provides minimal returns and therefore little incentive for bettors.

A numerical figure set by the bookmaker to counter the perceived bias in abilities of opponents - this provides more balanced odds.

To counter the perceived bias in abilities, and to provide more balanced and appealing odds, bookmakers offer what is known as handicap betting. In the context of soccer, the Handicap odds level the playing-field by accounting for difference in perceived strength of the participants by literally applying a goal handicap - positive and negative - to each side. This gives bettors the opportunity to find more value than when backing a heavy Favourite in traditional 1X2 bet - the most common way to bet on soccer.

The handicap is applied to the actual outcome of the game in order to grade (result) the bet. There are three types of Handicap bets you need to be aware of before betting:

Betting On Draws In Soccer Tournament

Level Handicap

A level Handicap is where there is no perceived difference in abilities between Team X and Team Y, so no Handicap bias is assigned and both teams start with 0 goals.

To win a bet, the bettor must identify the team which they think will score more goals than their opponent. This type of handicap isn't relevant for one-sided encounters but is useful in that it eliminates the draw; if the game ends in a tie all bets are refunded because on a zero handicap neither team has any advantage.

Single Handicap

Betting On Draws In Soccer Player

A single Handicap occurs when there is a perceived difference in abilities between Team X and Team Y.

The alleged superior team will be given an appropriate goal handicap to level the playing field for betting purposes i.e. -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc.

For example, if you bet on Team X with a handicap of -1 goal, they must win by more than one goal to cover their handicap and win you your bet.

If they only win by one goal, the result with the handicap applied is a draw for betting purposes, so your bet is refunded. If Team Y draw or win, you will lose your bet on Team X.

Split Handicap

A split Handicap occurs when the difference between the two teams’ abilities is small; allowing you to spilt your stake over two handicaps.

Betting On Draws In Soccer World Cup

A split Handicap occurs when the difference between the two teams’ abilities is small; allowing you to spilt your stake over two handicaps.

For example, Team X might be offered at (0 & -0.5). If you bet on Team X and they lose, you will lose both bets, as they did not cover either handicap.

If the match ends in a draw, half of your stake at (0) will be refunded, and the other half at (-0.5) will lose. If Team X wins however, both handicaps will be covered, so both bets win.

If you’re stuck in the past slavishly following three-way fixed odds betting, the chances are you’re not getting a decent return on your investment, and your betting might benefit from the fresh perspective that soccer handicap betting provides.

Now that you know how handicap betting can be used to increase your profits, don't miss out on our number one most popular article - Staking: One method to improve your betting.

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