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Above football betting tips are created for the 1X2 market, or Win-Draw-Win (Home-Draw-Away) for the final of each match. The 1X2 betting market is the most common betting options on football, where. Classical 3-way betting (also described as 1X2 or FT betting) has remained the top choice for punters around the world. Other popular football markets include total number of goals (over /under betting). The 1X2 bet is the most simple and common betting market used for sporting events. In a football match the 1 represents a home win, the X a draw and the 2 an away win. It is a straightforward market where.
Betfair.com is the biggest sports betting exchange. In Betfair the players bet against each other and not against the Betfair itself. Because of this, the stakes ratios are higher here than anywhere else. Another difference is that in the betting exchange you can not only buy stakes, but also sell them, which opens up new money earning possibilities – sports trading.
The idea behind it is the same as in the currency, stock and product markets – to buy cheaper and sell at a higher price. The difference is that the ratio is affected by the performance of the team or the sportsman.
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There is a number of betting markets offered in football betting, including the likes of double chance and both teams to score, but the fact is most successful bettors bet on straight win, goal line or Asian.
Football is the world’s most popular type of sports. Numerous football games take place every day in various countries of the world. To make the games more interesting, trading exchanges offer to predict the outcomes of the games and place bets on them.
Betfair.com also offers this opportunity, as well as a chance to trade or speculate with the stakes. The aim of the trading is to create a situation when, no matter what the outcome of the match is, you are still the winner. The main goal of sports trading is to create a situation when you are in profits no mater what the outcome is. Let`t get to the point!
Here are are 6 proven and profitable Betfair exchange Football trading strategies:
The simplest football trading strategy
Lay The Draw is the most popular Betfair football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.
The Strategy
The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal.
In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.
Before the game: Select match by the following criteria:
- Favorite odds is lower than 2;
- Odds on draw is lower than 4;
- In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams;
- The favorite team scores more than one goal in match on average;
- Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years);
- The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000.
In-Play:
- If the favorite team scores first, get out of position and green up;
- If the underdog scores first, use the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% initial lay stake and lay the underdog for 75% initial lay stake. If there is an equalizing goal, you can then green up an take an overall profit. If there is no equalizing goal and the underdog wins the match, accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that is sitting on the underdog team and move on to the next game;
- If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, “red” up and accept the loss.
A Score Grid visualization of this football trading strategy
Socrates strategy is a variation of the Aristotle and Clint strategies. It is designed to maximize profits and reduce the losses and does not require a lot of in play management.
Why this strategy works?
Using exact match selection criteria as in the Aristotle and Clint strategies, the Socrates becomes a simple trading strategy for beginners to implement. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.
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The edge in this strategy lies in the selection of right matches, the probability of teams scoring over 2.5 goals and how often these teams play a match where Both Teams are scoring a goal.
In this trade we are looking to win in two markets – Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals market to maximize our winnings.
In matches where one side scores 6 goals are often a consolation goal to loosing team which would give us double win.
How this strategy is played?
We are looking for football matches where the odds of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals markets are over 1.80.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 40 back bet on Both Teams To Score YES market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 40 back bet on over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 8 back bet on Correct Score 0-0;
- € 12 back bet on Correct Score 1-1.
Correct score grid visualization of Socrates Betfair trading strategy
Bets and odds for Socrates strategy implementation
In the images above you can see a Correct score visualization of outcomes of this strategy. As we can see, the ROI if the bet lands is almost 50%, which is quite a lot.
You do not have to do any adjustments, unless the scoreline is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 played minutes.
If the scoreline is 0-0 at 60 minute mark, green up 0-0 scoreline and scratch 1-1 scoreline. You will also have to take a hedged red on over/under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets.
If the scoreline is 1-0 then green up 1-1 scoreline, and make a scratch trade on over 2.5 goals market and take a loss onBoth Teams To Score market.
Any other scoreline will give us an edge in this trade. If the scoreline does not change until 80 minutes then we need to take a look at it and make some adjustment if needed.
At that moment we can exit the trade or stay in it with a hope of win on 1-1 scoreline, over 2.5 or Both Teams To Score. Ideal would be a win in both markets – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
What can go wrong?
The downside in this strategy is 0-0 scoreline or two goals scored by one team. We can take an extra insurance position on 0-0 for a winnings of € 50. We can also take a small cover on 2-0 scoreline by backing 2-0 and 3-0 when the score is 1-0.
This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchange. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This Betfair trading strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!
The strategy
Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.
Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals
Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.
This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.
Before the game
- Look for games where there is a favorite priced 1.4-1.7;
- Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher
Bets
- Back bet on over 2.5
- Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Bets on Correct score market looks like this
As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.
Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair
Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.
In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.
What can go wrong?
Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.
Summary
Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!
The Aristotle trading strategy is Over 2.5 goals market Football trading strategy with insurance positions in correct score market and Under 1.5 goals market.
Why this strategy works?
By doing a statistical research on the probability of over 2.5 goals scored in a football game and entering the market when the odds of over 2.5 goals are in our side.
How this strategy is played?
We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 58 (or 58% of the stake) back bet on Over 2.5 goals;
- € 14 (or 14% of the stake) back bet on 1-1;
- € 28 (or 28% of the stake) back bet on under 1.5 goals.
This is how pre-match bets on Aristotle trading strategy looks like
In the Correct Score grid above you can see how pr-game bets looks on this strategy. As you will have to implement moves in play, we can not calculate the probable ROI of this trade.
If there will be no goals scored early in the game, the odds of under 1.5 goals market will lower – that will create a profit to cover some of the potential loss on over 2.5 goals which, logically will be moving against us.
From the 23th minute of the game we should green ip Under 1.5 goals market as the first goals statistically are scored from the 24th minute of a match most often.
When the first goal is scored, a part of liability from over 2.5 goals market can be removed, and when the second goal is scored we can already hedge out for a profit.
If the underdog team scores the first goal we can place a lay bet off half our stake on 1-1 in order to reduce our liability on other scores to € 7.
If the result becomes 1-1 we can then lay off one more time for around € 25 to create a scratch on 1-1 and € 20 on all other scorelines.
When a football match goes as expected we can get a solid return of 20-80% of invested money.
Match Selection criteria:
If you want to make money on Betfair Football markets, then you will need to match the right football games with the right trading strategies.
To select the games for this strategy we use following criteria:
- Home team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
- Away team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
Then the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals is calculated
In match-ups where the calculated probably is more than 60% we will have a qualified game for trading and will look for odds of the right value to recommend a trade.
What can go wrong?
A dreaded 0-0 draw will make us loos all our stake. We can make an insurance bet on 0-0 or Under 0.5 goal markets for a half of our stake.
In this Betfair football trading strategy we are looking for a strong home side and odds of Over 2.5 goals market of 1.90 or more (ideally – 2.00 to 2.10) and Under 1.5 goals market is 3.60 or more.
The ideal scenario in this strategy is that both teams scores a goal, perfectly the game ends with 2-1 or 2-2.
You should also look in H2H statistics for recent games that has had goals and 1-1 games.
Bets in this strategy are placed before the game starts.
This trading strategy similar to the Aristotle strategy as the returns are 20 to 80% return if the game goes our way.
How this strategy is played:
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 60 back bet on Over 2.5 goals market;
- € 10 back bet on Correct score 1-1 (sometimes you may split 1-1 and 2-0 to favorite and stake 50-50);
- € 10 back bet on Under 1.5 goals market;
- € 20 back bet on Correct Scores 2-1 and 2-2 (you may back only 2-2, if both sides are evenly strong).
In Clint football strategy the over of 2.5 goals market should be at least 1.90. In some games, where the Scoreline 2-0 seems quite possible you can split the 1-1 and 2-0 Correct score cover bets.
Correct score grid example of The Clint Betfair trading strategy
As you can see in Correct score grid example above, the most dangerous scores in this strategy are 2-0 and 0-2. If the result becomes 1-1 at some point of the game, then we are in a really comfortable trading position as the maximum loss is only 10% of our stake, but probable profit is 200%.
This strategy can be very profitable if you can choose the right games to trade!
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Usually Over/Under bets are placed on 2.5 goals market. This Betfair trading strategy is based on Over 1.5 goals market, which is a more reliable market to place bets, because you will need only two goals in the game to win this bet.
The strategy
In this strategy we will be trading Football under 1.5 goals market.
Under 1.5 goals means, that there will be 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 goals means, that there needs to be 2 or more goals scored in the match.
In this strategy the bets are placed only when the game has started or in-play, but never before the game.
The odds of Under 1.5 goals market tends to raise fast.
On average the odds for Over 1.5 goals are 1.30 or more before the match.
That is not enough to make a profit in long term. That is why you should not enter the market before the game. Sit back and just observe the match. Each minute without a goal will raise the odds.
After 15 minutes in the game, the odds should be at about 1.45.
After 30 minutes in the game the odds should be about 1.70 and if the first half will be goalless the odds usually will rise to 2.0 or more.
And that is what we are looking for! At this time we are going to place our bet.
You can place your bet in the 40. minute of the game if you want or you can wait till the half time. The later you will place your bet, the bigger your profits will be.
When the goal will be scored, the odds will drop significantly, usually back to 1.50 or less, if the goal will be scored till the 60th minute of the game. Then we can immediately trade out for an overall profit.
The time of the first goal will determine the profits. If the first goal will be scored between 46th and 55th minute then profits should be around 50% of bet amount. And it happens regularly!
In this strategy we are looking to place our bets after 30th minute of the game ,remember that.
After this time have passed without goals, check the odds of Over 1.5 goals market and if they are 1.50 or more make your bet.
For extra security, you can also check the in-play statistics.
If the last matches of teams have gone over 2.5 goals for both sides or at least the home side, make a bet.
If the goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of the game, this strategy is not suitable anymore.
Summary
This is a great universal betting strategy. The only minus is that you will have to follow the games – you’ll have to watch the games on your mobile phone or in some live-stream or at least keep an eye of live-scores and that will take a lot of time.
Recap of this strategy:
- Bet on over 1,5 goals market instead of 2,5 goals;
- Analyze games and bet only on the games that are predicted for over 2,5 goals;
- Do not place bets until the odds for Over 1,5 goals are at least1,50 or more;
- If the goal is scored till 60 minutes of the game, after you have placed a bet, you will make profit if you green up. You can also leave the bet and wait for one more goal.
A betting market can be thought of as a category for a specific type of bet. For example, if you are looking at a Premier League football match, you are going to be able to find a wide selection of markets which are available for just that one fixture.
Those will range from the straight forward Match Outright Winner market. So through to markets such as Correct Score and Asian Handicap. So for any given event in any sport, be it tennis, cricket, basketball, volleyball or anything else. The bookmakers may open numerous different betting markets for punters to look into.
Across the many sports that are out there which bookmakers operate odds for. So there are simply too many markets to list in just one resource. In this betting guide you can find some of the most popular markets that are available for bettors to consider.
Popular Betting Markets Explained
Double Chance
The Double Chance market on a football game offers bettors the chance to pool together two of the three potential match outcomes into one bet. In a match between Manchester United and Liverpool for example, the options would be : Man Utd Win – Draw, Liverpool Win – Draw, or Man Utd Win – Liverpool Win.
One single stake covers a Double Chance bet, but odds are less favourable than in backing just one single match outcome. So if you backed a Liverpool Win – Draw then your bet would be successful if either of those outcomes occurred.
Correct Score
This is a popular market for events such as football matches as well as in other sports like tennis. The market will list options of what the final score of a match will be exactly. The market prices within a correct score market for a football match are generally ranging from around 6/1 and larger.
That is because of the difficulty in actually picking one exact score out of a multitude of possible outcomes. It’s a high-risk market, but one with high reward. In selecting a 2-1 correct score, for example, only that exact result will result in a win.
Soccer Betting Markets
Half Time/Full Time
The Half Time/Full Time markets which are available in football matches asks the punter to correctly predict the outcome of the match at two points of the fixture. In order for a bet in this market to win, both parts of the bet have to be correctly called. This means namely what the half time result is going to be and what the full-time result is.
If just one of the predictions are correct, the entire bet is lost. If Draw/Liverpool half time/full time option is selected in a match but Liverpool were winning at half time and winning at full time, the bet loses.
Both Teams To Score
The popular BTTS market in football betting simply asks whether or not both teams will score in a match. It’s a straight-up option of a yes or no and because of that, market prices generally don’t stray a long way from even money options. An example of this could be used in backing a strong home team to keep a clean sheet against a weaker opponent by selecting “no”.
Asian Handicap
Asian Handicap markets are a popular alternative to regular handicap betting. This bet eliminates a “push” (a drawn outcome of the bet). That means that an Asian Handicap is either going to win or lose. Therefore it is regarded as offering more value than traditional handicaps. Highly popular in football matches, quarter and half ball Asian Handicaps come into play to increase options.
Winning Margin
In a football match if there is a winning team then they are going to be victorious in the match by a winning margin. Therefore as an alternative market, a team can be backed to win by a certain margin. An example would be a one goal or a two-goal margin (the most common selections in the market).
This is often used when a team is at very short odds in a match outright, in order to seek out more value on that team winning the match. Chelsea could be backed to Win By A 2 Goal Margin home game against Southampton for example at longer odds. Which means that it has to be by exactly two goals.
Draw No Bet
The Draw No Bet offers some coverage to a punter on a backed selection in a football match. A team can be backed to win the match, but if they are selected as a Draw No Bet option and the outcome of the match is a draw. So then the stake is returned. Naturally, with the extra outcome included in the bet, it comes at a cost of odds. This compared to backing a team to win in a straight outright bet.
Goal Line Bet
A Goal Line bet is a prediction of how many goals or points are going to be recorded in a match. The outcome of the match isn’t important. For example, in football, a commonly used option in the Goal Line Market is over/under 2.5 goals.
The half goal is always included in goal line options. So that the bet will always be won or lost. You think Man City v Liverpool is going to be a high scoring game, so you select Over 2.5 Goals as the outcome. A minimum of three goals in the match would be needed for the bet to win. It doesn’t matter which team scores them.
Asian Goal Line
The Asian Goal Line market introduces some different options for over/under goals betting. In some instances, this market is called Alternative Goal Lines as well.
The alternative options in Asian Goal Line betting is in the creation of quarter goal bets. This is a type of interval. What these do basically is split a stake between two different options.
A quarter goal is the midway point between a whole goal and a half goal option. For example, an Asian Goal Line option would be presented as “Over 2, 2.5” which means that the stake played is being split evenly between an Over 2 and an Over 2.5 bet. This creates situations where half wins and half losses can occur in Asian Goal Line betting.
Soccer Betting Advice
Another different option that Asian Goal Line betting brings as opposed to regular Over/Under markets in football matches, is the use of whole goals. If you back a game to just go Under 2 goals for example and there are exactly two goals scored in the match. This creates a situation of a refund being paid back, because the game neither ended over or under
1X2 Bet
The 1X2 bet is the most simple and common betting market used for sporting events. In a football match the 1 represents a home win, the X a draw and the 2 an away win. It is a straightforward market where one pick from the three potential outcomes is made. You back a Draw (X) for example in the match outright because you think the two teams are evenly matched. The scoreline doesn’t matter, just the result.
Handicap Bet
A traditional handicap bet is where the bookmaker attempts to level the playing field in terms of the two competing teams. For example, if Saracens are a strong favourite at home in a rugby match, then they may be set a -14 point handicap. This means that not only must they win the match. However, it must be by a margin of 15 points or more.
Soccer Betting Prediction Today
Similarly, the underdog in that match may be at +14 which is setting the requirement that they don’t lose by a margin bigger than 14 points.
Scorecast
The scorecast market in a football match is a notoriously tough market. That is because it is calling for two correct predictions in the bet from highly unpredictable markets. A Scorecast bet asks for the First Goalscorer and the Correct Score in a match. Harry Kane – Tottenham to Win 2-0 would be an example.
Wincast
Free Betting Tips Soccer
A Wincast is similar to a scorecast bet. This is commonly used in football betting but it is not exclusive to it. In the example of a football Wincast, the two parts of the bet (which are combined into one) are the Winning team and Anytime Goalscorer. The Wincast comes into play because a double cannot be created out of selections from these markets from the same event.
Win To Nil
Soccer Betting Tips And Predictions
The Win To Nil bet is backing the winner of football match to keep a clean sheet as well. Both factors in the bet have to happen in order for the bet to be successful. The two options are rolled into one bet for a single unit stake. An example of using this bet type is backing Barcelona To Win To Nil in a home match against a weaker team.